There are four possible outcomes that I currently see for the future of work, assuming the current trajectory lasts. With robots almost here, and AI accelerating daily, the need for most jobs is about to diminish rapidly.
1. We will do increasingly meaningly or fake work
Fake work is standing in the checkout in Walmart pointing shoppers to the empty checkout station that has already lit up green to let the shopper know it is available. Greeters were the original fake Walmart jobs of course.
Kurzweil says in his book that even though AI beat a person at chess many years ago, people continue to play chess; so logically, people will still work. However, since people are not paid to play chess and chess does not lead to real power differences, that is not a useful comparison in my opinion.
Are there other fake jobs that are popular today?
Other issues besides the need for work, is the speed at which work is done. As pressure (demand) to produce decreases, the speed at which people work (supply) will decrease. Simple economics here.
Looking at the businesses in my smaller town, it would seem that the majority of them really are not that necessary, esp restaurants, pet services, and personal care services.
2. New service-oriented jobs are not the answer
Many propose a dramatic improvement in customer service on the horizon, but it will not create more jobs. AI+Robots will do a better job with service than any overseas, or American support rep.
More importantly, how is instantaneous customer service helpful to society? If I cannot get my service question, or dinner for that matter, in less than 3 seconds, then am I really that miserable? Perhaps so, under the relatively shifting definition of pain and suffering?
3. We will do meaningless work, which is to say play.
- Consider what job most of us had 200 years ago: farming.
- Think how necessary that was for survival.
- Compare that to today’s jobs.
- With about 2% of the workforce in farming, seems like the need for critical jobs is nearing zero.
- Robots+AI will also automate all farming at some point. Tractors drive themselves
- What does that mean compared to jobs today?
- Most jobs today are relatively superficial.
- Extrapolate trends far out to the future to predict the jobs of the future.
More importantly. Will society recognize its failed need to exist and loss of struggle to survive? I assume it’s already well underway actually, and will demonstrate that later. Even my job in marketing seems pointless. Bill Joy was right in that the future does not really need us.
I am certain though that this model of hedonism is unsustainable simply due to the class division and elitist issues I discuss elsewhere and here.
I hate to be the one to say it, but the techno-anarchists do seem to have a valid point here about people becoming some useless, without purpose or underlying need for a drive to survive, that they have no choice but to revolt against technology itself at some point. If not, Hikikomori will be the standard of life for most. Society is already disintegrating, but few will notice, and others might even disagree.
Many argue that when people’s basic needs are met, then we can focus on creativity and doing work we are interested in. I have even surveyed most of the UBI studies, which are flawed in my opinion. Either way, how important will that work be? I believe that most people will simply play, and I have data to prove it.
What percentage of the population will spend more time playing instead of working? consider that the average American already watches around 35 hours of TV a week, 10 hours of video games for gamers, and about 5 hours for internet usage (unclear of how much of that is work vs play). So in total, 70 hours a week in front of a screen, most of it is probably play.
3. Work may become increasingly outlawed under the pretense of suffering
The average workweek is half of what it was 150 years ago. In Europe for example, the average workweek is 35 hours. In the early 1800’s it was 70. This trend is true for all developed countries.
So I will assume the work weeks will get shorter, and the illegality of working long hours, or working at all, will increase, with shorter than ever work weeks, as govt increasingly considers all work in a world of relative ease as “suffering.” The EU for example already limits work to “48 hours per week on average (including overtime).” One of the more prominent early examples in the US was the 1938 Fair Labor Standards Act, which prohibited overtime without extra pay. Today it’s longer vacations, paid vacations, paid maternity leave, etc…
Good thing I work for myself and don’t prohibit myself from working as much as I need or want. In fact, I think self-employment will be the only realistic choice for future work models, partly because machines will let us create whatever we need without middlemen, like businesses.
4. ”Playing” may become the predominant model for earning
So, if we even get very far, then it seems highly probable that “fun” is the only work, which is games and social influence centric. Perhaps we will all get paid to play chess, or whatever video game is popular.
This leads me to think that video games will be a main, if not largest, source of income for many, if not most people. This has been depicted somewhat in various pop fiction books and movies in recent years, and even the Metaverse seems to be the pinnacle of this idea: Fake lives, fake relationships, and fake income (using real socially accepted currency of course).
Perhaps this is why the central idea of movies like “Ready Player One” is popular. Who doesn’t want to get paid to play chess, even if limited to just social currency (e.g. you outrank other players and/or get paid in virtual currency as a prize)? this assumes the current trend continues, and we all actually survive the AI-pocalypse of course.
But is a “work-free world” sustainable?
A “workless” world is most likely to lead to a complete breakdown of society, class, and politics. I believe there is hope in the future, but it’s not in technology. It’s in the people.
HumanIT 